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Whacking Permalink Archive 27 January 2004 MotoGP 2004: Rossi set to nuke 'em? In his first test of the Yamaha M1, Valentino Rossi finished only 0.6 sec behind the fastest Honda (Biaggi's). He was also faster than long-term Yamaha no-hopers Carlos Checa (who has had the bike for two seasons) and Norick Abe (who has tested the bike for the last few seasons). Even whizz-kid Marco Melandri - with a full season on the M1 behind him - could not match Rossi's pace.
Can Rossi actually win the title this year on the Yamaha? You bet. Tough job, but I'd feel queasy betting against it. Biaggi still looks the best bet on paper. He has a mechanical advantage over Rossi and if he doesn't beat him this year he never will. Unfortunately, Max is very weak mentally and falls apart under pressure, so the sure thing aint a sure thing. The other Hondas? Barros has been promoted to the works team, and actually outpointed Rossi in '02 once he got the RCV. Doing it over a full season, however, is almost certainly beyond him. But, should Rossi's machine prove mechanically fragile, and should Biaggi have yet another meltdown, Barros is in with a shot. Then there are the two American Honda boys: Nicky Hayden is a future world champion, but he wasn't anywhere near the fastest in the last test session. Colin Edwards could be a dark horse for the championship if he adapts to the bike quickly, but I can't see it happening this season.
Makoto Tamada has the only Bridgestone-shod Honda, and is a real threat for a race win or two, but forget about it as far as the title goes. You can forget Suzuki, Aprilia and Proton, and you can especially forget Kawasaki, who will continue to finish miles behind everyone else. Why do they even bother? So, it's going to be Biaggi and Rossi as far as the obvious candidates go. I'll pick Biaggi simply because he has the Honda beneath him, and the task of setting of the Yamaha for each new racetrack may be beyond even Rossi's superhuman abilities. I can see only one threat to this one-two combination: The Ducatis of Bayliss and Capirossi. The Dukes made a stunning debut, winning a race in their first season and making the Japanese factories (Honda excepted) look very stupid indeed. They also ran away with the prestige of having the best looking and sounding bike. Bayliss' career history is one of learning the first year, and winning the title the second year. This year he'll know the GP tracks, and most likely an even more potent bike under him. Capirossi will show flashes of brilliance, but won't have the consistency. What of Gibernau? He had a strong showing in '03, winning a bunch of races and generally proving that Rossi is not quite as God-like as his followers would have us believe. He also has a works Honda under him. Honestly, I can't seem him being a factor: there are too many other guys now with fast Hondas: Barros, Tamada, Edwards, Hayden, Biaggi, plus Vale on the Yamaha and the mighty Dukes. Sete is up for a race win or two, but he can forget the title. You can safely ignore the Ducati B-team of Hodgson and Xaus. Their modest talents may have looked good in the crap Superbike competition last year, but they won't be worth a lot here. So, my picks for the 2004 MotoGP season: 1st: Max Biaggi (Honda) This is going to be
one hell of a season. Scott Wickstein - probably the only man on earth who can play chess while experiencing alcohol poisoning - is organising a blogbash in Melbourne for the Easter weekend. No details have been confirmed yet, but easter Saturday (April 10) is looking the most likely day, and the Duke of Kent the desired venue. Of course, we're assuming that the Duke of Kent will be open on that night (in the big-government hell of Victoria, you can never be sure). If it aint, we'll find somewhere else. Likely attendees thus far are Scott, myself, "Tom Paine" & Sasha Castel. We should also be able to round up Aggers Anderson, Tony "no-longer-a-pisspot" Taylor and maybe even Slatts (yes I know he's in Geelong. He can drive can't he?). Scott and I are currently working on some other OzBloggers, some of whom look good chances to turn up. Anyway, if you'd like to attend, e-mail me (tex "AT" whackingday.com) or Scott (scott "AT" ubersportingpundit.com) and let us know. And yes, non-bloggers
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